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The Surge is Too Little Too Late
by Andrew Chulock
The recent decision by President Bush to send a so
called “surge” of 20,000 troops to Iraq
is not the solution to the present quagmire in Iraq and in fact creates more
problems on the ground. In a guerilla type war such as being fought by the
insurgents in Iraq, in which suicide bombers strike seemingly at random
around a dense urban core, the addition of 20,000 more troops is like sending
20,000 more targets for the insurgents to take aim at. The time for sending
additional troops should have been at the outset and in numbers far greater
than the 20,000 that the president has sent.
In Operation Desert Storm, where the mission was merely
to eject Iraq’s
forces from Kuwait, the U.S. had 500,000 troops deployed,
in addition to the 160,000 troops sent by our allies. Remember, we never
occupied Iraq during
that war, yet in the present war we only have 153,000 (source:McClathy Washington Report
http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/16616389.htm).
With the recent British withdrawl, even with the additional 20,000 troops
surge, the total number of combined U.S. and allied forces in the
region are less than 200,000.
Unlike most Democrats who are in favor of timetables
for withdrawing the troops, however, I maintain that it is not too late
too win this war and that withdrawing the troops anytime soon will create
far more bloodshed than if we maintain the present course, which is also
not a good solution. To call up a far greater number that the present surge,
in the order of at least 150,000 troops is what is needed to stabilize the
situation that has become complete chaos on a daily basis in Iraq.
If we cannot call up this many troops, an overwhelming
presence in which the insurgents can hardly move without a U.S.
soldier breathing down his neck, then the daily carnage we witness on television
will continue unabated until a future President finally calls it quits and
we simply withdraw in a Viet Nam style retreat. The
consequences of such a retreat would be disastrous to the United Sates on
many fronts, not the least of which would be an Iranian style theocracy
controlling the oil of Iraq,
which sits on the second largest reserves on the planet. Gas could easily
be $6 a gallon in such a scenario and would wreck havoc with our economy.
The price of food and other essentials could likewise triple overnight.
If you think there is a civil war in Iraq now,
that is tantamount to a rock scissors paper contest in relation to what
would erupt after we withdraw. The Shiites, who greatly outnumber the Sunni’s.
and have lived under Sunni rule for decades under Sadaam, would not have
us to stand in the way of an attempt to wipe out their rivals. Sadaam was
the only entity able to stand in the way of these two factions prior to
our invasion.
If the Shiites prevailed after a bloody civil war
in setting up an Iranian style theocracy most likely there would be an Iranian-Iraqi
de facto super state which would be a safe harbor for terror and whose combined
resources, in terms of oil revenue, intellectual potential for furthering
nuclear programs, and dedicated followers willing to commit suicide in the
name of their religion to destroy us would be the result.
Clearly, then, we cannot pull out of Iraq in
the near future. That being said, we cannot allow our soldiers to be sitting
ducks in an environment where the enemy does not wear a uniform, answers
to no government, recognizes no Geneva convention, and has no regard for
its own life, let alone anyone else’s.
The answer is not a band aid when you are bleeding
profusely. The 20,000 troop surge is just that, a band aid. What we need
is a troop surge in meaningful numbers, and the sooner the better.
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